Other common infectious diseases like influenza and norovirus are also drags on employee productivity with their annual outbreaks or outbreaks in children like measles that can pull parents out of work. The biggest blindspot for employers though in terms of productivity losses from infectious diseases is the development of new pandemics. Other/new pandemic pathogens are expected in the coming years, with massive potential associated absenteeism. PHC Global’s forte is managing risk from infectious disease outbreaks that lead to absenteeism.

How does PHC Global reduce workplace absenteeism for our customers? Our approach is multi-pronged and evident in our Pharos platform and the API’s we provide to integrate in our customers’ platforms. We produce practical, high-quality products that help CSO’s and people-leaders keep their workplaces operational in the face of infection stressors. Those products derive their utility from PHC’s bedrock that rests on:

Expertise:

PHC Global’s experts are the core of everything we do. Our team is composed of leaders in the fields of communicable disease spread (epidemiology), data management and analysis, infectious disease clinical care, public health systems, software development, communications, and other fields. We bring these diverse skill sets together in a unique synergy that benefits our customers.

Freedom from political influence:

Our guidance is evidence based and experience based. We are not beholden to political agendas or limited by bureaucratic restrictions on the guidance we give our customers.

Timely Intelligence:

Early warning is key. What would you do with a week to prepare for an outbreak that will impact your operations? Two weeks? Four weeks? The intelligence pertaining to emerging outbreaks that we offer our customers is driven by our unique blend of extraordinary data inputs, utilizing AI curation tools. The intelligence is then expertly curated for accuracy, relevance, and degree of confidence. It is offered to our customers before competitors become aware of the threats from their more-traditional sources of infection news. The PHC Alerts, Analysis, and Critical Threat products exemplify this approach.

Practical guidance for the workplace and workforce:

We work with customers to create practical measures they can choose to implement in their workplaces and with their employees. Depending upon the work environment and pathogen in question, these measures may include the use of room air filters, sick-leave policies, workplace process modifications, masking, ventilation enhancements, work-from-home triggers, vaccine education, travel guidance, and others. In times of uncertainty, employees appreciate having a trusted source for unbiased, evidence based measures they can take to protect themselves. Similarly, employers appreciate having a trusted source they can turn to during those times. PHC’s customizable, geography-specific alerts and guidance aid in workforce planning when new infections are looming, or when previously known infections are surging.

Communications:

PHC Global offers email notifications so you can have alerts and guidance delivered directly to your inbox. PHC even has more detailed guidance on best practices for workplaces to reduce infection transmission. We work with customers to manage their employee communications at critical junctures. In outbreaks, information voids tend to be filled by inaccurate information that has the potential to curtail productivity. CSO’s and people leaders can turn to PHC Global as a trusted voice in such uncertain times. Misinformation and disinformation can be combated by PHC’s many avenues of communication with customers and their employees.

Geographic Relevance:

Customers can choose regions of geographic relevance to them in Pharos, targeting what is most important to their business. This is customizable to each user, to be specific to the needs of different functions.

In this era of global travel and global interdependence, infections travel faster than ever before. Their ability to drive absenteeism, therefore, is increased. CEO’s, COO’s, CSO’s and people leaders need resources they can turn to to protect corporate operations at such times. PHC Global’s extraordinary combination of deep expertise, customizable interface, and emphasis on practical guidance is the resource such leaders need on their side.

Promoting Effective Personal Hygeine Practices

• Adopt a culture in the organization that encourages effective, common-sense behaviors like handwashing, cough/sneeze etiquette, and use of elbow or fist bumps instead of handshakes for greetings.  Handwashing, especially before eating, after using the restroom, or after shaking hands with others has been known for generations to reduce disease transmission, especially for respiratory infections. When high-touch surfaces like countertops and door handles are contacted, hand hygiene is key for employees to reduce respiratory infection (and GI infection) risk. HR leaders can model good cough/sneeze etiquette by using a bent elbow to cover the mouth and nose when coughing or sneezing. Then, it is best to immediately perform hand washing (or antiseptic gel use) afterwards. Similarly, modeling greetings other than handshakes, like elbow bumps, can keep more employees healthy during this rampant respiratory virus season. You can circulate and post this infographic in key areas like breakrooms, restrooms, and meeting rooms to promote these approaches with your employees.

Encouraging Non-Presenteeism

• The culture of respiratory virus prevention should also encourage non-presenteeism. That is the concept that employees should stay out of the office when ill with respiratory symptoms, especially when they have fevers. Leadership needs to model this for employees to make it work, as if the leaders stay out when ill, others are more likely to do so. When employees come to work sick, management should be trained to send them out of the office. Remember, it’s much easier to have one key employee out ill than it is to have 10 out because the first sick employee came to work. Virtual work from home arrangements for potentially contagious employees can make this habit easier to adopt.

Vaccination and Masking Policies

• Masking by employees, although politicized, has strong evidence of its effectiveness as a measure that reduces respiratory infection risk. Places that had high rates of masking, like Taiwan, fared much better during the COVID-19 pandemic than the US did. Encouraging employees who wish to mask in the office to do so can make your workplace safer and lead to fewer people being unable to work because of respiratory illness.
• Updated vaccines are now available for influenza, COVID-19, and RSV. Almost all people over 6 months are eligible for influenza and COVID-19 vaccination, and pregnant women or adults over 60 are eligible for RSV vaccination in the US. All three of these vaccines reduce the chances of dying from their respective infections. HR can establish programs to secure vaccine access in the workplace for COVID-19 and influenza vaccines. Leadership can educate employees about eligibility for the RSV vaccine so they consult their healthcare providers about its risks and benefits. Similarly, HR policies should make it as easy as possible for interested employees to get vaccines (provide childcare and PTO for employees pursuing vaccination). Transportation assistance to vaccine-providing sites should be incorporated, and programs bringing the vaccines to the workplace at a variety of hours can boost vaccine uptake in the workplace. Education campaigns about the impressive benefits conferred by these viral vaccines can have significant influence on employees choices about vaccination.

Enhancing the Workplace Environment and Promoting Safe Travel Practices

• Simple in-office air handling measures, we now know, can help make the workplace safer from viral respiratory infections. These include the use of low cost, portable, in-room filtration units and the deployment of basic ventilation improvements (opening doors, windows when possible)

• When employees must travel or go to crowded meeting spaces for work, CSO’s can have an influence on protective precautions employees can take. Extra measures to reduce viral transmission risk (hand washing, physical distancing to the degree possible, pre-travel vaccination, and masking when on planes, trains, etc, all can reduce risk. Allowing employees to travel by private vehicle lessens the chance they will get sick in transit.
• Smoking increases susceptibility to respiratory infections, and smokers get sicker when they get these viruses. Employers and health insurers with whom they contract can incentivize smokers to quit. Added costs of insuring smokers can be passed on to the smokers, as studies have shown doing so increases quit rates. Fewer smokers on the workforce lessens the organization’s overall susceptibility to these respiratory viruses.
• Use antibiotics only when confidently diagnosed with a bacterial infection by a HCP. Most colds, sinus symptoms, and bronchitis are viral, and antibiotics do not help. Overusing them carries significant short and long-term health risks. These include the onset of a dangerous bowel infection after the antibiotics kill off the normal protective bacteria that live in the bowel. Overuse of these medicines also leads to antibiotic resistance (after even a few doses) that impairs the ability to treat infections in the future.

• If employees contract COVID or influenza, they should immediately contact their healthcare provider to see if they are candidates for treatment for those infections with antivirals. Such treatment can be life-saving for some, and shorten the length of symptoms for most. 

The first two winters since the darkest days of the COVID-19 pandemic have been characterized by intense proliferation of other respiratory viruses (influenza and RSV). When added to the productivity losses driven by COVID-19 disease, these viruses put a lot of employees out of work and make their employers less competitive. The measures described above can help reduce absenteeism on your teams, and different combinations of them can be adopted by HR and CSO leaders to fit your organization. Remember, no one measure is perfect at prevention of these infections, so the more measures that are adopted, the fewer cases will arise in your employees, and the more resilient your workforce will be.

1. An influenza pandemic

We’re not talking the seasonal flu that we’ve all become accustomed to. We’re talking about a flu pandemic so bad it cripples daily life and business. This has happened repeatedly throughout history, and it will happen again. Experts assert we are overdue for such a disaster, based on historical patterns. Flu pandemics happen because the virus mutates significantly, and then spreads since we have little immunity to the new version. In 1918, over 50% of all inpatients in some Philadelphia hospitals died EACH NIGHT from flu, for awhile. That virus spread globally within a few months, whereas it takes about 6 months to manufacture influenza vaccines. Our healthcare systems have more infrastructure than they did 100 years ago, but our vulnerability here is huge. Businesses will be no exception. For CSO’s, preparedness and early action are key.

2. The spread of mosquito-borne diseases to new regions

Adequately prepared CSO’s will understand the business risks posed by rapidly emerging mosquito-borne infections in the US, and they will have response plans ready. Dengue fever, known as “breakbone fever” because of the bone-crushing pain this dangerous virus generates, is making a return to the US as its mosquito hosts spread around the country, enabled by climate change.  Malaria, with its legendary fevers and chills, is on the increase here as well. 

Yellow fever, experts warn, is poised to soon return with a vengeance to the US, as its mosquito carriers gain new footholds here. Hallmarks of yellow fever include jaundice from liver failure, life-threatening bleeding, and black vomit. Absent from the US for decades, it caused devastating epidemics during the 1800’s. Preventive vaccination is available in limited quantities but carries some risk, and there are no effective treatments. Given the potential for rapid spread of yellow fever, business impact would be enormous, driven by public anxiety. Fallout could include advice against non-essential travel, stay indoors guidance, event cancellations, and impacted hospitals. CSO’s would benefit from having early intel as the virus appears. They also should have employee communications and contingency plans prepared.

3. A rebound of vaccine preventable illnesses like polio or measles in the US

This is already happening. In 2022, a case of polio was diagnosed in New York. Further analysis showed polio virus was present in over 8% of wastewater samples from this region. These viruses were linked to strains of polio used in vaccines outside the US that are shed by humans after vaccination. In some cases, those strains can trigger paralysis in the unvaccinated. Measles, previously declared “eliminated” in the US, was just diagnosed in Wisconsin and Illinois. There were clusters of this in Minnesota and Ohio last year. These are not diseases to be trifled with, as those alive in the 1930’s-1960’s can attest. They remember how many of their loved ones became ill, died, or suffered permanent complications from them.

Polio vaccine has been provided to 92% of 2-year olds in the US. That number is 91% for one of the most contagious diseases known, measles. For tetanus, the number drops to 80%. At the start of kindergarten, nearly 1 in 10 US children remain susceptible to measles. With these numbers, experts expect outbreaks from these dangerous infections. Furthermore, vaccine protection is declining. According to the American Academy of Family Practice, vaccine coverage declined about 1% per year in 2020-21 and 2021-22.

4. Another coronavirus analogous to COVID

Infectious disease experts realize the near-term chances of another coronavirus outbreak with regional or global implications are good. CSO’s need to have their organizations ready in advance. Since 2002, there have been 3 outbreaks of new coronaviruses with significant enterprise impact. These include SARS that affected East Asia and Canada operations, MERS that arises in the middle east, and COVID-19. Given recent history, odds are that other contagious coronaviruses will arise, and businesses will have to deal with the fallout. Prior COVID-19 infection will not provide adequate immunity against them.

5. A widespread outbreak of Ebola or related infection

No disease drives fear as much as Ebola. The images of people bleeding profusely captured in popular media leave a powerful impression. Prior Ebola outbreaks have harmed business operations of those operating in Africa and elsewhere. They have led to travel restrictions affecting multiple continents. Supply chains have been disrupted. Future outbreaks of Ebola or related viruses could become more widespread in Africa than before, with greater effects on major cities and economies. The viruses also have potential to spill over to other continents, with some person-to-person transmission there. Global air travel disruptions would be huge. Travel bans would be implemented. Health systems could be strained. Enterprise impact would be disproportionate to actual disease risk, since Ebola is less contagious than some other viruses (i.e. COVID).

6. An intentional release of a weaponized version of a known germ

In 2001, the Anthrax attacks in the US drove pervasive fear. People were wondering how far the disease would spread and whether they would be exposed next. The US mail system was compromised. Multiple countries have stores of other high-risk germs like plague and smallpox. There are well documented leaks of weaponized germs from research labs and well documented knowledge transfers those labs to bidders elsewhere.  The chances that those with ill intent get their hands on such dangerous germs are very real. Models estimate the economic impact of a bioweapons attack would range from $477M to $26B (in 1997 dollars) per 100,000 exposed persons. Properly prepared CSO’s could provide timely, contextualized information to employees, who will be thirsting for information at such a time.

While we cannot predict which of the above scenarios will happen next, we can say with certainty that some of these events will severely test businesses in the not-distant future. Those that have prepared ahead of time and have objective, actionable intelligence at their fingertips will fare the best. PHC has the expertise and technology to help CSO’s lead these efforts for their enterprises.

Last winter’s flu season arrived early in the United States, did COVID play a part in its timing? Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) led to record numbers of hospitalizations of children last winter, and Streptococcal infections surged in the United Kingdom, U.S., and elsewhere. People want to know if there’s a link between COVID and these other diseases.

COVID is linked to some subsequent infections, but we need to learn a great deal more about the relationships between COVID and others.  Here is what we know about various infections that can follow or arise during COVID:

Bacterial Pneumonia & Superinfections

The link between COVID illness and later infections is well established for bacterial pneumonia arising during an acute COVID viral illness. Healthcare workers call this phenomenon a “superinfection.”

Superinfections are common with COVID infections. In hospitals, physicians regularly confirm bacterial pneumonia in the days and weeks following an admission for COVID disease. Patients then require antibiotics to treat these secondary infections. 

COVID isn’t the only illness with links to superinfections. Influenza or RSV often create an environment for additional infections. A large percentage of deaths during the infamous 1918 influenza pandemic were from Strep pneumonia that arose days after the initial influenza viral infection. In 1918, antibiotics were not available, so many who made it through the influenza virus onslaught then did not survive the secondary bacterial superinfection.

Influenza and RSV

Last winter’s flu season arrived months early in the U.S., catching many by surprise and infecting many before vaccines were widely deployed. Around the same time, RSV, which causes “croup” and related respiratory illness in children, was filling pediatric units in hospitals in the U.S. and elsewhere. RSV has the potential to be fatal in children and in the elderly, who were also impacted. 

These events drove the question – Did COVID make us more susceptible to these ailments by impairing our immune function, since so many who got flu or RSV had just had COVID, which has known immune system impacts?  

Another question centered on what is known as “immune debt.” COVID lockdowns kept us from catching flu or RSV, so our immune responses were not as primed to respond to flu and RSV as they would have been if we’d been getting regularly exposed to those germs.  Did our resulting immune debt then lead to the unusual waves of these illnesses? Evidence suggests that answers to this question point towards both decreased overall immune function and germ-specific immune debt playing roles in this past winter’s flu and RSV surges.

Influenza typically spikes in the winter months in the U.S., and its timing and intensity vary a lot from year to year, so it is possible that last winter’s early flu surge was due purely to chance. Prior to the COVID lockdowns, however, RSV infected almost everyone by the time they were two years old, providing immunity to most children. During the COVID lockdowns, however, infants had little exposure to others and tended not to get infected with RSV. Last winter, therefore, the number of unexposed and non-immune infants in the U.S. was larger than usual. It is generally accepted that a portion of last winter’s RSV surge was due to those previously uninfected children catching RSV for the first time, as an unintended consequence of COVID lockdowns.

Fungi

The number of cases involving a new type of difficult-to-treat fungal infection, Candida auris, has nearly doubled in 2021 compared to 2020 to just under 1,500 cases in the U.S. Persons with severe COVID requiring hospitalization had very high rates of Candida auris compared to others. It is not known if the COVID itself predisposed them to acquiring that fungus, whether medicines used to treat COVID were linked to Candida auris onset, or whether just being in the hospital and sick was the driver.

Common Bacterial Infections 

Clinicians are describing increases in common bacterial infectious diseases, including but not limited to Staph and sexually transmitted infections. Staph infections of the skin, blood and heart are increasing in number. Meanwhile, some sexually transmitted infections in the U.S., like syphilis and chlamydia, have reached levels not seen in decades. Additionally, the CDC has reported increases in brain abscesses in children during the last year.

Severe Strep Infections

This past year has also been characterized by documented increases in certain kinds of severe Strep infections. In the U.S., U.K., and in many European countries, there have been increases in “invasive” Strep infections for children under 10 years of age, that cause dangerous diseases like bloodstream infections, meningitis and flesh-eating bacteria syndromes. Right now the higher rates of invasive Strep infections are only associated with the COVID pandemic, and COVID has not been shown to be causal of the Strep surges. Nevertheless, the magnitude of the increases and number of countries reporting them is notable, leading to speculation about a link. Plus there is precedent for respiratory viral infections leading to increased Strep susceptibility, namely the 1918 flu pandemic noted above.

As researchers try to clarify the links between COVID and later infections like Strep, lab studies play a key role. From those studies, it is clear that some immune system cells (for example, CD8+ T cells) and the infection-fighting products they release are altered during and after COVID, in ways that can increase infection susceptibility. There are altered quantities of some immune system cells and their products after COVID, as well as differences in how well those cells function. A recent NIH press release noted that some of the COVID-related damage to our immune system cells leads to states of impaired immune protection, analogous to what is seen with HIV or hepatitis C disease.

In sum, while susceptibility to infection for any one person is influenced by many factors, we are seeing patterns emerge and lab studies result that suggest COVID increases subsequent  infection susceptibility, for some people, from some infections, for some amount of time. The magnitude of that influence likely varies widely from person to person. Further clarifying this matter is a priority, as we expect continued COVID presence for the foreseeable future..

Biosecurity is a broad term that encompasses infectious diseases, as well as biological risks from environmental, geopolitical and infrastructure events. And we know that biological threats are increasing in frequency and impact across the globe. Just this summer we’ve seen severe heat, unhealthy air from wildfire smoke, protests in Europe and the rise of deadly diseases such as cholera and dengue fever.

How ready are you to face new biosecurity threats? Here are 10 questions that can help you determine your level of preparedness. The more “yes” responses you can provide to the following questions, the more prepared your business will be for the next biosecurity event.

Question #1: Is your business operating under the presumption that more pandemics like the COVID-19 crisis are likely to arise in the not-too-distant future? 

We’d all like the recent pandemic to be “one and done,” but experts tell us that we can expect another pandemic at least the size of the last one within a few years. In the meantime, we will confront other biosecurity risks that threaten lives and livelihoods. 

Question #2: Has your business conducted a review of its response to the COVID-19 pandemic to ascertain lessons learned and prepare for future biosecurity threats?

Experience is often the best teacher, and most businesses can learn valuable lessons from their COVID-19 response. You may have a general sense of whether your response was successful or not. But without a thorough, data-driven analysis, you may remain unaware of specific opportunities for improvement.

Question #3: Has your business identified potential biosecurity hazards specific to your geographic footprint?

A pandemic is not the only biosecurity threat you face, and the larger your footprint is, the more challenging it is to identify threats. Differences in climate, geography, infrastructure, and available medical care can cause  biosecurity threats to differ vastly from site to site. Consider the threats to each of your business sites, as well as threats during commuting, delivery or travel.

Question #4: Have you included  biosecurity threats in your existing risk assessment to establish its threat level to your business?  

Risk assessment can be a time-consuming and costly procedure, but it serves an important purpose: quantifying your level of risk so you can develop a robust response.  Biosecurity threats should be a part of your assessment, just like cybersecurity.

Question #5: Does your enterprise already have an emergency operations plan that includes biosecurity?

After you assess the risks you face, your emergency operations plans should detail actions for prevention, preparedness, response and recovery for a variety of threats. Take time now to update your plans to include emerging biosecurity threats. 

Question #6: Does your business have a detailed plan for communicating risks to employees, customers and the public? 

When disaster strikes, communication is key. During a biosecurity threat event, you may need to quickly communicate about infectious disease exposure, building closures, evacuations, or many other biosecurity-related matters. Do you have a solid plan for reaching your entire team, both during business hours and outside of them? Do you have a plan for communicating with the public and media? Do you have backup communication plans if cell service is down?

Question #7: Has your business taken health and safety actions to mitigate biosecurity threats for employees and their families?

An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure – it’s a cliche that rings true when it comes to biosecurity management. Determine whether your business is taking all recommended proactive measures, such as:

• Incentivizing preventive care through health insurance provisions
• Conducting occupational health screening for illness
• Establishing a workplace Illness and Injury Prevention Program or equivalent
• Communicating safe work practices, such as hand washing, safe food handling and using sick leave to lessen workplace disease transmission
• Explore and implement policies to promote business continuity in face of biosecurity threats

Question #8: Does your business have access to supplies needed to mitigate biosecurity events and to respond to events that emerge?

A few leftover COVID-19 masks aren’t enough to constitute a robust supply stash. Keeping in mind that supply shortages often arise at the outset of a crisis, ensure your business is adequately stocked with:

• Personal protective equipment
• Ventilation and air filtration systems
• Disinfection equipment and supplies
• Back-up power sources for key facilities and workspaces
• Air and water filtration systems

Question #9: When planning work-related events, conferences and travel, does your event team work to mitigate and resolve possible biosecurity threats? 

Biosecurity threats aren’t just contained to your permanent operation sites. Your business is also responsible to manage biosecurity threats during travel and off-site events. If you haven’t been accounting for these risks, you may have a blind spot to correct before it’s too late.

Question #10: Does your business have an internal or external system to provide analysis and guidance during current and future biosecurity events?

When a new biosecurity threat arises, members of your organization will likely have different opinions about how to proceed. Without an authoritative, data-driven system to provide direction, things can devolve quickly. Fortunately, you don’t have to manage the next crisis alone. 

PHC Global delivers biosecurity intelligence options that meet you where you are – through an API that integrates with existing security management software, stand-alone SaaS platform and alerts, and expert consultations. PHC Pharos, a stand-alone SaaS platform, provides 24/7 online access to customized biosecurity intelligence, as well as critical alerts that inform your enterprise risk management.

PHC Global can help you understand the threats you might face and provide early warnings as they occur. That allows you to respond early and effectively.

Contact PHC Global to learn more!

The short answer is no. We need to monitor outbreaks of COVID-19 and other pathogens, even when things appear quiet. Here’s why: It only takes a few short weeks with the right biosecurity threat to go from nothing to a full-blown crisis. 

So why don’t we get regular official updates?

With infectious disease outbreaks, no news may mean that authorities are trying to get a handle on an active outbreak before releasing information. They know that severe epidemics and pandemics can drive social unrest, so leaders want to have plans in place before  announcing severe outbreaks.

We also know that political leaders face disincentives to report and disclose true pathogen spread in their midst. These disincentives come in the form of economic consequences, political tolls, community anxiety, potential restrictions of liberties, educational impacts, and in some at-risk regions, even food security. 

When authorities delay reporting an outbreak, it puts enterprise risk managers at a serious disadvantage. Chief security officers can be blindsided when sudden reports of widespread disease hit the news. It is much better to have an early warning and the ability to track an outbreak’s spread and severity as it truly evolves, rather than waiting for official announcements that may be delayed or intentionally downplayed.

What happens when no news is bad news?

Unfortunately, global examples of “no news equals bad news” abound for outbreaks. Most recently, after initial announcements that the deadly Marburg virus had surfaced in Equatorial Guinea, neither officials from the country nor the World Health Organization updated the status of the disease’s spread for over a month from the middle of February to late March.

On March 22, WHO finally announced that the virus had been detected in three widely spaced provinces with eight confirmed deaths. The news, however, had been delayed. Officials in Equatorial Guinea had waited nine days to report some of the positive test results they had collected – days that could have been spent preventing the spread of the disease. 

Then on March 29, the WHO director general specifically called out Equatorial Guinea for not reporting cases that WHO knew had been confirmed.  Country officials then reported four additional cases. The delays prompt speculation about how many other cases have gone unreported.

At the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic, China was widely criticized for downplaying the severity of the epidemic there, and it took videos of doors being welded shut to keep ill persons isolated and images of overburdened crematoriums in Wuhan province to alert the world to the severity of the crisis. Those tracking the United States’ pandemic response certainly recall statements from 2020 that COVID was, “just like the flu,” or that it would magically go away. Meanwhile some parts of the U.S. government were estimating potential deaths would surge over a million, which, sadly, has happened.

This tendency to downplay infectious disease is not new. Eerily similar responses to what we have witnessed during COVID-19 arose during the world’s most infamous pandemic, the 1918 flu. This flu killed up to 5% of the world’s population in a horrific two-week period during its spread. The U.S. President in 1918, Woodrow Wilson, did not even make public statements about the disease until it was raging widely, preferring to keep the focus on the US war effort in WW I. 

On the other hand, when a country excels at reporting vital information promptly on a pathogen in their midst, they can suffer economically, politically and socially for that accurate information. South Africa did an outstanding job characterizing and describing early cases of the Omicron variant in their midst (which actually originated in other countries before spreading to South Africa).  

When South Africa announced it to the world in November 2021, however, they suffered flight restrictions, travel bans and other measures that had adverse economic impacts. The South African currency value plummeted in international trading, and travel-related stocks fell drastically. South African residents weren’t allowed to travel internationally.

The global community should have responded to South Africa positively for sharing this key information early and developed a collaborative response to it. Timely information, shared globally, about outbreak evolution and pathogens is what we need to create effective responses to the threats posed by pandemics.

In order to create actionable information for enterprise security officers, PHC Global leverages its broad network of traditional and non-traditional data sources to secure early information on emerging pathogens. Then, our team of experts curate the information and craft guidance for our customers, even when the silence from official updates can be deafening. PHC Global works to keep information flowing so that these silent periods don’t increase the stakes for enterprise companies. Not knowing what is coming can be deadly. Instead, with advance warning and expert guidance, risk managers can create mitigation strategies and prepare their enterprises and workforces for change. Their time, and yours, is better spent initiating preparedness efforts than waiting for the next official update that may not come.

We have two possible answers. The virus either arose from a lab leak in Wuhan, China or it came from a wet market there. 

In February, an unreleased report from the U.S. Department of Energy, which oversees a network of U.S. labs, concluded with “low confidence” that the COVID-19 outbreak originated from an accidental lab leak in Wuhan, China. Even with this report, however, other U.S. government agencies and leading scientists have not changed their opinion that the virus causing COVID-19 came from the wet market in Wuhan, as a result of transmission from animals to humans – a phenomenon known as a spillover event.

In fact, three weeks after the DOE report, researchers presented data at a World Health Organization meeting that suggested racoon dogs may have been the intermediate host for the virus. Racoon dogs are wild animals sold in the Wuhan market, and researchers found traces of coronavirus in their stall. WHO officials cautioned that this new information is not definitive and the virus could have had origins in a lab.

We expect this debate to continue, and we may never reach consensus on the origins of COVID-19. 

The origin of the virus, however, may not be the most important question we can ask from a biosecurity risk management perspective. The more relevant question might be: What can the ongoing debate teach us about enterprise preparedness and risk management? 

Future outbreaks may originate from labs, wet markets or other sources. It’s valuable to gain insights about both in order to prepare for the next outbreak, regardless of its origin. At PHC Global, we want to share what we know to help you develop risk mitigation strategies for your enterprise.

1. Lab leaks: Preventing and preparing for potential lab leaks

The suggestion that COVID-19 originated in a lab is plausible because of the known potential for accidental lab leaks. Labs commonly work with infectious agents, and although most don’t have malicious or offensive motives, there’s still potential for accidental release of these organisms. 

In fact, if the COVID-19 virus did originate from a lab leak, it was hardly a unique case. In November 2022, poliovirus was detected in sewage in the Netherlands, and research showed it had leaked from a lab there. Unfortunately, lab leaks can and do occur. When they do, they often leave social, political and supply chain disruption in their wake, creating panic and international relations disasters. 

Events like this underscore the need to maintain the highest safety precautions at facilities working with potentially infectious germs. Universal codes of conduct at these facilities, and international oversight of labs, can also reduce risks. But even the best preventative measures sometimes fail. When disaster from a lab leak strikes, it’s vital that your enterprise has the foresight to see it coming and the time to plan your response.

2. Animal spillover events: inevitable drivers of human disease

If the COVID-19 pandemic originated from animal-to-human spillover, it is also not the first time it’s happened. Past examples include the 1918 influenza pandemic, Bubonic Plague, SARS and MERS. When one of these events has occurred, global economies have experienced major disruption. Could it happen again? Sadly, the question is not if, but when. 

In fact, spillover to humans is happening now, although in small numbers.  Human cases of the H5N1 Avian Flu have been reported recently in Cambodia. The Marburg virus has, so far, been responsible for 27 human deaths in Equatorial Guinea. Spillover events will continue to occur, and although most will have a limited scope of impact, some will lead to sustained human-to-human transmission with its associated consequences. 

3. Prevention of animal spillover events

Is there anything we can do to reduce animal spillover events? Fortunately, we have many options. These include:

• Improving land use, especially at the human-forest interface
• Improving and standardizing animal management
• Regulating wet markets
• Limiting poaching

However, none of these measures can fully eliminate the threat.

4. An effective global response to animal spillover events

What happens when animal spillover events do occur? A multi-national collaborative response to spillover events, with broad participation of industry, governments and academia, lending expertise, resources and genomic analysis to the effort is essential. Global biosecurity platforms like the PHC Pharos will also be critical to these efforts by providing timely, science-based intelligence, using a range of cutting-edge data streams coupled with expert threat assessments and guidance. Enhanced diagnostic testing, pathogen surveillance and genomics capacities are all key to global preparedness.

5. Enterprise preparedness for animal spillover events

Enterprises should expect future animal-to-human transmission events to drive local, regional, national and global outbreaks. Organizational leadership should understand the risks unique to the areas in which they operate. For instance, an awareness of Ebola in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, or plague in some Western regions of the  U.S., is crucial. 

Enterprises also should prepare for future zoonotic pathogens (those that have jumped from animals to humans) that are likely to cause global disease. These could include non-COVID coronaviruses and flus that originated from animals. The PHC Pharos Platform can serve as a powerful tool in this effort, offering foresight and actionable insights so that enterprises can anticipate outcomes before they occur.

6. An effective global response to the debate

The debate surrounding the origins of COVID-19 has been fueled by the chaos inherent in a rapidly evolving pandemic, politics and other factors. It also has been amplified by lack of information sharing by multiple countries. Unfortunately, the debate distracts from the reality that no matter the origin, viruses like this will arise again, so learning from COVID-19 is essential. 

Now is the time to prepare with measures including:

•  investing in public health infrastructure
•  improving transparency surrounding lab activities and disease outbreaks
•  enhancing international oversight of labs
•  expanding genomics
•  developing rapid diagnostics
•  Increasing wastewater pathogen surveillance capacities

7. How should your enterprise respond?

For effective critical decision-making, your enterprise should be empowered with the following:

• Use science-based guidance for navigating a crisis
• Establish purpose-built solutions in place for your unique business needs
• Cultivate the ability to rapidly forecast trends and global relationships
• Collect data from diverse, reliable sources to drive optimal analysis
• Develop work-from-home options as established mitigation strategies

Despite our best efforts, not all crises can be prevented. However, global and enterprise preparedness can mitigate the human impact of the next public health disaster.

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References:

1. Lab Leak Most Likely Caused Pandemic, Energy Dept. Says‍
2. The Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan was the early epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic
3. Are raccoon dogs the missing link in the mystery of COVID-19’s origins? The answer depends on whom you talk to
4. Wild poliovirus type 3 (WPV3)-shedding event following detection in environmental surveillance of poliovirus essential facilities, the Netherlands, November 2022 to January 2023
5. Beyond the pandemic origins debate
6. Cambodia Reports 2nd human case of h5n1 bird flu

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For more information about PHC Global and the PHC Pharos Platform, view our video or visit our website

COVID-19 cases and deaths have decreased significantly from the high rates of the past few years. In the U.S., there are effective mRNA vaccines and masks that prevent transmission. There are antiviral medications that treat those who are at risk for severe illness and reduce deaths. These are positive mitigation strategies to lessen the harmful impacts from COVID-19 and move it to a regularly occurring disease.

The virus, however, continues to be a threat, and COVID-19 remains a leading cause of death among adults in the United States. There are and will continue to be surges in cases, often with great variation by geographic area. 

As we transition from responding to COVID-19 as an emergency to viewing it as an endemic disease, actions to mitigate the risks associated with COVID-19 infections are largely now up to individuals and organizations. Worldwide, people have fatigue from long-standing restrictions and mandates. Although there is less patience with requirements and a desire for individual decision-making, protective measures may be implemented in the future if needed. 

Businesses Management of Risk

Enterprise businesses will continue to own the risk of disease impact for COVID-19 to the degree the business is affected by the disease. Employers can:

• Help normalize employees’ choices if they want to continue masking even without a policy that requires it;
• Promote strategies that protect against COVID-19, including vaccinations, staying home when ill and reporting positive cases;
• Prepare for future surges in COVID-19 cases with policies that are ready for implementation when needed. When real-time data indicates an increased risk, these policies can easily be put in place; and
• Provide accurate information about COVID-19 to combat public perception that COVID-19 is no longer a health risk

Building a resilient system for COVID-19 doesn’t have to end with this disease. The best parts of these systems should be kept up and integrated so businesses are ready for the next biosecurity threat. 

As the virus continues to surface on a regular occurrence, so will Long COVID. There will be long-term impacts to a group of employees, most likely those that opt not to get vaccinated or take steps to reduce individual risk. 

Based on the most recent data, 5% of the adult population is struggling with activity limitations from Long COVID. Indeed, nearly one third of COVID-19 related workers’ compensation claims submitted to the New York State Insurance Fund between January 2020 and March 2022 met the definition of Long COVID. The CDC has found that nearly one in five American adults who have had COVID-19 still have Long Covid. This data is based on a 20-minute online survey conducted multiple times beginning in April 2020 and continuing through January 2023. 

Broader Impacts

The end to the US Public Health Emergencies (PHE) on May 11, 2023, will have a moderate impact on residents and businesses. There are implications for medical insurance coverage, costs and payment for COVID-19 testing, treatments and vaccines. States will receive a change in the federal matching rate for healthcare services if they meet specific criteria. Disaster-related eligibility requirements, waivers for Medicaid and other system flexibilities will end, potentially negatively impacting many who were previously uninsured or underinsured. A sample of some of the changes are noted below:

• Private health plans will no longer be required to cover COVID-19 tests in and out of network, and costs may be passed on to individuals;
• Private health plans will no longer be required to cover the cost of COVID-19 vaccines by out-of-network providers;
• Flexibilities in physician licensing to provide telehealth services will end in some states;
• Penalty waivers for HIPAA violations, which had allowed clinicians to provide care using standard communication methods (FaceTime, Skype) that are normally HIPAA non-compliant, will end; and
• Additional policy changes that apply specifically to recipients of Medicare, Medicaid, and the Children’s Health Insurance Program.

When COVID-19 emergency declarations end, COVID-19 and Long COVID will continue to be a threat. Leaders and businesses should monitor local conditions, recognizing some impacts from the disease may continue.

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References‍

1. Statement on the fourteenth meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee regarding the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic
2. CDC Deaths and Mortalities
3. Long COVID: What Do the Latest Data Show?
4. New NYSIF Report: Long Covid
5. Nearly One in Five American Adults Who Have Had COVID-19 Still Have “Long COVID”
6. CDC — Long Covid
7. What Happens When COVID-19 Emergency Declarations End? Implications for Coverage, Costs, and Access

For more information about PHC Global and the PHC Pharos Platform, view our video or visit our website

Avian flu is perennially an issue for birds. This year has been particularly devastating, with larger numbers of avian flu cases among birds around the world. 

How does avian flu spread among commercial poultry? Avian flu viruses are found in wild birds who often don’t get sick from them. When wild birds pass the virus to domestic poultry, through feces or direct contact, the virus can cause them to get very sick. At times, authorities must sacrifice entire poultry flocks to stop transmission of the disease and prevent the virus from mutating to become more deadly or more transmissible.  Thus, there is a large impact to supply chains from egg and poultry shortages.  

Is Avian Flu an Immediate Threat?

Usually, avian flu viruses are not passed from birds to people. Although there are occasional human cases, the impact is low on a population scale. Most human infections have occurred among people who have had close contact with birds raised on farms. People cannot get bird flu from eating fully cooked chicken, turkey, or duck, because heat kills the virus.

A recent report suggested Avian flu infected and spread widely among commercially farmed mink in Spain in October 2022. This raised alarm bells as mink are closely related to ferrets, which in turn have served as a model for the study of human influenza viruses due to ferrets’ ability to become infected and display symptoms similar to humans.

Avian flu is not an emergency for the general public or for businesses, outside of companies working directly in the egg or poultry realm. It will have a low impact and doesn’t require immediate action for most of us.  

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What Should Businesses Do?

This year’s avian flu outbreak is a reminder that many influenza or other viruses, or currently unknown pathogens could become the next pandemic. As we have learned over the past three years, another pandemic would impact our lives and our livelihoods significantly. An avian flu pandemic WOULD be scary as it is even deadlier than COVID. 

PHC Global recommends businesses take concrete steps to build resilience in preparation for the next pandemic:

• Maintain policies that enable continuity of operations. Should the circulating avian influenza strains become capable of sustained human-to-human transmission, mitigation measures will be similar to those used during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially masking. Ensuring lessons learned from the pandemic are codified in policy builds business resilience. Turn-key mitigation measures should include establishing work-from-home trigger conditions, masking, and physical distancing.
• Encourage employees to receive the seasonal flu vaccine. Although the annual vaccine does not target H5N1 specifically, it bolsters workforce protection against the flu.
• Consider conducting tabletop preparedness exercises and pandemic impact assessments to evaluate the business’ state of readiness, and evaluate and address any gaps found. 

Ensuring that COVID-era policies remain up-to-date and easily implemented is critical to maintaining preparedness for future biosecurity threats.
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For more information, Download the H5N1 Avian Influenza Situation Update and Threat Overview for Business Continuity and Risk Management White Paper.

For more information about PHC Global and the PHC Pharos Platform, view our video or visit our website